Tag Archives: Euro

So long and thanks for all the fish …

… or a final word on (shh!) BREXIT.

Note – this is an unbiased post not wavering one way or t’other just commenting on what I have seen today]

The United Kingdom has come out!

Who’d have thought that would be the outcome (or indeed the headline of the day)?

It was a vote into the unknown, with no cold hard facts or figures, like I said in my previous post. And to be honest, anything could happen – there are 2 possible outcomes now that a decision has been reached.

  1. It’ll all go belly up and we’ll still be in a dire mess – albeit with no one to blame but ourselves;
  2. Everything in the garden will come up roses

It was really too close to call, but we live in a democracy where majority rules, so we must abide by the decision.

It appears that anyone who voted “Leave” was clearly too stupid, totally ignorant and should never have been in charge of a voting card in the first place and that those who voted “Remain” are trying to get a 2nd referendum because they didn’t like the outcome of the 1st one!

So here was the map, courtesy of the BBC, of the results:

brexit map

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It really was, as you can see almost 50/50, but Leave snatched it with 51.9% of the vote to 48.1% – but anything over 50% is a majority (at least it was when I went to school).

And if all those blue regions that voted leave are far too stupid, doesn’t that say something more about the standard of education in country? (just asking)

There have been jokes aplenty about how I used to have a pound in my pocket now I’ve only got 89p, or now I can’t go into Poundland.

But actually is that really true.

Fact 1: We never joined the Euro, therefore you had a pound in your pocket to start with

Fact 2: Your pound is still worth a pound

Fact 3: It’s only if you change currency that the exchange rate is a tad unhappy at the moment. And right now 1Euro is 81p, or £1 will get you 1.23 Euros (it’s been worse).

As for  2nd referendum that’s being demanded by the Remain camp, could I just ask (being devil’s advocate) what would the reaction be if the tables were reversed and Remain won by the same margin and Leave decided to protest and demand a 2nd referendum – would there be an outcry of “you lost, get over it?” (again, just asking).

Now this petition calling for a 2nd referendum says “We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based on a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum”

One thing, shouldn’t this petition have been started before the result, not after, as it now seems to smack of sore losership?

If we’re going on turnout according to the BBC website, the turnout was actually lowest in areas with more young people!

But, if we take that request based on less than 75% turnout count for a moment, that kind of negates every single general election result back to 1979 where 76% of the voting electorate turned out and Margaret Thatcher won a landslide victory (figures not plucked out of thin air but from ukpolitical.info website).

So, if we go on that argument then Mrs Thatcher is still effectively Prime Minister and we’ll all wake up tomorrow morning back in 1979. Is everyone OK with that?

No?

Didn’t think so.

Furthermore, based on this 75% turnout, then London should have its Mayor removed forthwith since the turnout for London Mayor elections since 2000 has been constantly less than 45% (OK 2008 was 45.33%)

So with that basis the Remain camp have achieved time travel back 27 years, just in time to reach record unemployment of 3 million, a miners strike and flares. On the plus side at least houses were cheaper in 1979 😉

 

Leaving flippancy, sarcasm and everything aside, the vote is done, the die is cast we cannot change what is done. So we just have to make the best of it.

Like anything in life it is a risk, se we just have to think of it as a new beginning, the first step into the unknown has been taken, we just have to hope the staircase is there.

 

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Should I Stay or Should I Go?

BrexitSo says the song by The Clash (1982)

And it seems quite prophetic that an English punk band’s song about relationships nearly a quarter of a century ago succinctly sums up the feelings about tomorrow’s referendum in the UK.

Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
And if I stay it will be double
So come on and let me know
Should I stay or should I go?

Tomorrow is a historic day. A once in a lifetime opportunity to have your say on the future of the United Kingdom.

So, what do you do?

The first and most important thing is to use your vote. If you don’t use it due to general apathy, the weather, protest, etc. your voice will not be heard and you really do not have the right to complain if the vote doesn’t go whichever way you would wish it to go!

There has been a lot of scaremongering, a lot of postulating and an awful of hot air and heated debates. But, the one thing that has, and is, been glaringly and obviously missing from this campaign, on both sides, is the absence of cold hard and concrete facts, backed up with evidence. (And as a maths geek I kinda like those things.)

There are, however, 3 facts that I know will be true when I wake up on June 24th, irrespective of which way the vote actually goes:

  1. The sun will rise in the east and set in the west;
  2. The earth will still be spinning on its axis;
  3. I will still be able to get on a plane and fly to Europe!

What the vote is, in effect, is a vote for an unknown and uncertain future.

And when you put it like that, it sounds pretty scary, right?

My dad came up with a great analogy to explain this conundrum.

In simple terms, imagine you are working for a company that is in serious trouble – think about the recent closures of BHS/Austin Reed/Tata (I would like to point out that neither him or I are comparing the state of the EU to an almost bankrupt company).

Anyway, I digress, so you are working for a company that you know is in serious trouble. What do you do?

You have 2 choices – you stay or you go.

But with both of those choices are 2 possible outcomes, and you have no clue as to what will be the outcome.

IF I STAY IN MY JOB

  1. The company will go broke and I will lose my job 😦
  2. The company will turn itself around, start making money again and my job will be safe 🙂

IF I LEAVE MY JOB

  1. I will get a new job but I won’t like the company and/or my colleagues, so I will have to look for another job 😦
  2. I will love my new job and all will be well 🙂

In other words – to put it mathematically:

tree diagram

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see whatever choice you make you have a 1 in 2 chance of losing (or keeping) your job, whichever way you vote.

But tomorrow you must make that same choice!

And that’s the thing with this referendum, no one knows for certain what will happen whatever way the vote goes.

IF WE STAY successive governments can argue and negotiate to keep from adopting the Euro, Schengen and other such unified policies and win their case, OR we will be forced by the majority rule (such is the case in a democracy) and be forced into becoming a state in a United States of Europe ruled from Brussels – like it or no.

IF WE GO business may (or may not) leave these shores costing jobs, livelihoods and bringing about economic chaos OR businesses will stay and we take back our seat at the World Trade Organisation and negotiate more trade agreements on our terms (rather than having to have the agreements of 27 other countries before we can) and business and the economy booms.

But no one knows what will happen.

No one can predict the future (believe me I’d be very rich if I could!) Just like no one can predict the actual outcome from rolling a dice, or spinning the roulette wheel, you can just calculate the odds. Such is the Law of Probability.

We are lucky to live in a democracy where we have freedom of thought, freedom of speech and have been given the opportunity to make such a decision.

In the end it doesn’t matter what political party you support or what your friends and family think. You vote in accordance to what you feel is right as an independent, free-thinking human being – after all a vote, as they say, is between your conscience and the ballot box, it’s no one else’s business and certainly not worth fighting over.

All you can do is go with your gut instinct, remembering that according to the Law of Probability you have a 50/50 chance of changing history for better or for worse.

But you gotta roll the dice!

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